Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 1.600491 2.110361 2.800072 3.825926 5.357253 7.634556e+00 11.433280
2025-01-12 0.992410 1.473640 2.234582 3.595758 6.140011 1.110220e+01 22.811075
2025-01-19 0.646725 1.048674 1.764767 3.252891 6.638643 1.520229e+01 44.713055
2025-01-26 0.476703 0.837855 1.557690 3.293801 8.163963 2.487832e+01 121.863361
2025-02-02 0.382670 0.727028 1.494293 3.657532 11.349449 5.030205e+01 573.592265
2025-02-09 0.319691 0.653527 1.481998 4.222539 16.916113 1.234262e+02 7396.090227
2025-02-16 0.259171 0.561253 1.379080 4.478465 22.828094 2.926321e+02 933150.369944
2025-02-23 0.204603 0.462154 1.206177 4.340692 27.152039 6.191692e+02 NaN
2025-03-02 0.161539 0.376927 1.031594 4.036531 30.176522 1.255787e+03 NaN
2025-03-09 0.138377 0.336863 0.982213 4.314773 42.068802 5.560497e+03 NaN
2025-03-16 0.119150 0.301036 0.929063 4.547009 58.131681 4.443628e+04 NaN
2025-03-23 0.105007 0.275328 0.900440 4.942456 86.672939 4.773738e+06 NaN
2025-03-30 0.091853 0.249673 0.864925 5.345337 134.825599 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.077286 0.214562 0.769261 5.114814 165.004737 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.064584 0.181897 0.667763 4.674445 181.401475 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.056895 0.164213 0.627898 4.812837 265.705573 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.052202 0.155628 0.628612 5.469294 529.384165 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.048727 0.150367 0.644709 6.479627 1354.089115 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.044287 0.139935 0.625524 6.982600 2889.379563 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.039238 0.125575 0.574256 6.798980 4393.027972 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.034491 0.111194 0.515207 6.313607 5436.279727 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.031892 0.104955 0.504774 6.836363 15679.132203 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.029458 0.098707 0.490673 7.281138 54086.681267 NaN NaN